YORK faces a huge challenge to hit its target of building more than 1,000 homes a year, experts have said - and Green Belt land may be quickly targeted for development.

City of York Council has today launched an eight-week consultation on its draft Local Plan, outlining potential sites for 22,000 homes up to 2030, with thousands of pages of documents released on what is set to be one of the most hotly-debated issues in York’s history.

Consultants Arup’s housing study, published for the first time today, said the recession and recent construction rates made building even 850 homes annually “highly challenging” short-term, but this figure would make the amount of affordable housing which developments must include too high.

It said higher housebuilding levels would tackle this issue, drive down prices and boost economic growth, but the economic picture may make the Labour-run council’s aim of 1,090 homes a year tough to achieve.

Arup said earmarking greenfield sites “in the right locations” for early development may kick-start housing schemes and “provide a good signal” to the market.

It said building 1,090 homes a year “may reduce affordability issues and commuting into the district”, but added: “The nature of the fiscal climate and the impact of the downturn on the housing market may question the overall deliverability of the plan and this approach.”

However, the consultants said it would not be “appropriate” to pursue a target of less than 850 homes a year, a figure which was last achieved in 2005/06. Over the last five years, an average of 463 new homes have been built annually in York.

The Office of National Statistics said in March last year that York’s population is predicted to grow by 25,000 between 2010 and 2030, although other forecasts have said it could reach 222,500 by 2026, an increase of 26,200. The report said any population explosion between now and 2030 will be "ultimately driven by the scale of international migration".

Opponents of the plan claim York’s currently unofficial Green Belt will be ruined by thousands of homes, but city leaders said brownfield sites alone will not meet housing demand and York’s landscape will not be harmed by schemes on the greenfield land selected.

Coun Dave Merrett, cabinet member for planning, transport and sustainability, admitted the target was “ambitious” and may take “some years” to reach, but said: “Our underlying belief that it is achievable is backed by major housebuilders, who believe there is pent-up demand and a market for significant expansion in York.

“We are also creating a much larger land supply. Some potential sites are easier to develop, and greenfield sites are more appropriate for the family homes we need. We have included all the brownfield sites we can, with the exception of part of York Central where we cannot currently demonstrate viability, and we have avoided sites identified as important for the city’s setting and heritage.

“The function of the Green Belt is to constrain urban sprawl and development in blocks where we don’t want it, and we have maintained that principle and protected the green wedges running into the city from the Outer Ring Road."

Coun Merrett said the council would look at any new brownfield sites which are suggested during the lifetime of the Local Plan, but the council could not include “windfall” sites which may not definitely be available as this could lead to the blueprint being rejected when it is studied by a Government inspector.

Following criticism of the council's approach to publicising information about the Local Plan, with opposition councillors saying they were denied access to the Arup report before today and it should have been made public when the authority's cabinet decided to send the plan out for consultation, Coun Merrett said it had made more information about the blueprint publixly available than other councils had about their Local Plans.

Coun Tracey Simpson-Laing, cabinet member for housing, said: “We need more homes for young people who currently cannot afford them - it’s not just about bricks and mortar, and people must realise we need homes and communities for those who want to live and work here in the future."

Liberal Democrat councillor Nigel Ayre claimed Arup’s report did not “fully back up Labour’s argument”, which he said would mean almost 5,000 more homes than the consultants recommended through the 850-a-year figure. He said: “Labour’s figures go beyond population trends and are neither realistic nor deliverable.

“We will be studying this new evidence in the coming days. What is now becoming strikingly clear is that, in the face of conflicting evidence and growing public opposition, Labour need to modify their Local Plan.”

Conservative leader Coun Ian Gillies claimed there was no proof the homes targets were “attainable or desirable” and accused Labour of “grandstanding”. He said it was a “high-risk, high-growth option” which had been questioned by Arup and 850 homes a year would be in line with expected population growth and local and national requirements, saying: “Labour are willing to alienate the residents of outer York and put our Green Belt in limbo for years to come to satisfy their own political ends.”

Green leader Coun Andy D’Agorne said Labour risked “killing the goose which laid the golden egg” through expansion plans York’s roads and other infrastructure will not be able to cope with, and a 5,500-home new village earmarked at Holme Hill, next to the A64 south of Heslington, would cater “for commuters driving to Leeds as much as York’s workforce”, while new homes north of Clifton Moor would “clog up the Outer Ring Road even more”.

York Outer MP Julian Sturdy said the release of the documents today had “done little to ease my ongoing concerns about the evidence the council is using to justify tearing apart our Green Belt with inappropriate and unsustainable development.”

The public consultation on the draft Local Plan runs until July 31 and a series of exhibitions will be held across the city during this time, while information flyers have been sent to all York households and businesses.

For more information, visit www.york.gov.uk/localplan or follow @CityofYork on twitter. Consultation comment forms can be emailed to localplan@york.gov.uk, handed in at the council’s West Offices HQ or sent to Local Plan, City of York Council, FREEPOST (YO239), York YO1 7ZZ.

Following the consultation, comments will be assessed before a draft submission is made to the Government later this year. A second consultation, on the final Local Plan, will be opened early next year, with the document expected to be in place by 2015.

The council has said that failing to put a Local Plan in place will lead to York losing control of planning policy and could lead to unfettered development across the city, including on Green Belt land. Its previous Local Development Framework was abandoned following criticism by a Government inspector.